SYNOPSIS
Boeing has formally reset expectations for the certification of its 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants, pushing regulatory approval into late 2026. The revised timeline forces major customers like Southwest and United Airlines to overhaul fleet strategies through 2027, as the plane maker redesigns a critical engine anti-ice system to meet strict Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standards. This delay signals a broader “industrial reset” under CEO Kelly Ortberg, prioritizing engineering stability over speed as the company reintegrates key supplier Spirit AeroSystems.
SEATTLE, Boeing confirmed this week that certification for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 will slip to 2026, ending months of speculation regarding the timeline for the final two members of its narrowbody family. The aerospace giant now anticipates FAA approval for the smaller MAX 7 by mid-2026, with the stretched MAX 10 following late in the fourth quarter. Consequently, entry-into-service (EIS) dates have drifted into early 2027 for launch customers.
Southwest Airlines, the largest customer for the MAX 7, has scrubbed the aircraft from its 2026 operational plan. CEO Bob Jordan told Reuters the carrier is now planning for certification in “roughly August 2026,” with passenger flights commencing in early 2027. Similarly, Ryanair and WestJet have adjusted their outlooks for the MAX 10, expecting initial deliveries in spring 2027.
The schedule adjustment follows a turbulent period of regulatory scrutiny. The FAA has maintained a firm grip on Boeing’s production rates since the January 2024 Alaska Airlines door-plug incident, capping monthly output at 38 jets for most of 2025. While regulators recently permitted a rate increase to 42 jets per month, the certification delays underscore a new reality: the FAA will not be rushed.
The primary technical bottleneck involves the 737 MAX’s engine anti-ice (EAI) system. The system uses hot bleed air from the 5th and 9th stages of the CFM LEAP-1B engine compressor to prevent ice buildup on the engine inlet cowl. However, flight testing revealed that in dry air conditions, this superheated air could damage the inlet’s carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) structure.
Engineers identified that prolonged activation in non-icing conditions could heat the composite inner barrel beyond its material design limits. This created a theoretical risk of the inlet cowling fracturing and striking the fuselage or windows. Boeing initially sought a safety exemption to certify the aircraft with a temporary workaround but withdrew the request in early 2024 amid intense political pressure.
The subsequent engineering fix has proven complex. Boeing abandoned an initial redesign in mid-2025 after determining it disrupted the delicate airflow into the engine, which could penalize fuel efficiency. The current “finalized” solution involves a more robust hardware redesign, including modifications to the pressure-regulating shutoff valve to restrict hot air flow more precisely during dry operations. This redesign requires a fresh battery of certification flight tests, pushing the timeline deep into 2026.
Simultaneously, the MAX 10 faces a unique avionics hurdle. Under the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act, the jet must include an “enhanced flight crew alerting system.” This mandates a synthetic angle-of-attack (AoA) calculation to cross-check sensor data and a physical means for pilots to silence erroneous stick-shaker stall warnings, features designed to prevent a recurrence of the MCAS-driven crashes. Integrating and validating these systems adds another layer of friction to the certification critical path.
The 2026 delay fundamentally alters the narrowbody capacity landscape. Airlines that built growth strategies around the high-density MAX 10 must now extend leases on older aircraft. United Airlines, once the staunchest MAX 10 advocate, removed the jet from its immediate internal fleet plan. CEO Scott Kirby, while recently expressing “bullishness” on the variant as a long-term up gauging tool, has pivoted to Airbus A321neo deliveries to secure near-term lift.
For Boeing, this reset is strategic. CEO Kelly Ortberg is leveraging the delay to stabilize the production ecosystem following the $4.7 billion reintegration of Spirit AeroSystems in December 2025. By synchronizing the certification of the MAX 7 and 10 with a stabilized supply chain, Boeing aims to avoid the “travelled work” and quality escapes that plagued previous ramp-ups.
The financial stakes remain immense. The MAX 10 holds over 1,200 orders and is Boeing’s only direct counter to the Airbus A321neo, which currently dominates the middle-of-the-market segment. While the 2026 target is plausible, it leaves zero margin for error. Any failure in the new anti-ice valve testing or avionics validation could push the program into 2028, a scenario the market may not forgive.
Anshum Raj